Everything you need to know about the referendum in FYR Macedonia

Everything you need to know about the referendum in FYR Macedonia

John visited the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia as a member of the European Parliament-FYRM Joint Parliamentary Committee (pictured above) during the referendum campaign. Here he explains the outcome of the referendum 

Yesterday (Sunday 30 September 2018) there was a referendum in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. The issue at had was whether or not the people wished the country to join NATO and the European Union and in order to do so, change the name of the country to ther Republic of Northern Macedonia.

Why a single question?

Because the issues are inherently linked. While the country is called ‘Macedonia’ neighbouring Greece would veto any progress on EU membership - so, ‘no change, no chance’ as they say.

What does it have to do with Greece?

Well, nothing really, but the fact is that there is a region of Greece called Macedonia and Greece believes that while there is a country next door with the same name it implies a territorial claim over their bit. It doesn’t really matter how ridiculous this sounds - it’s a fact. In the meantime the Greeks will stop any progress just because they can.

Why does changing the name help?

Change the name, drop the claim is the way enough Greeks see things. So Northern Macedonia is OK - like Northern Ireland. So the ‘deal’ between the two governments was that so long as Macedonia changed its name then Greece would drop its opposition to their progress into the EU.

Does that mean everybody is happy now?

Of course not, this is politics! On both sides of the border the opposition parties complained that the deal was a greate ‘betrayal’ of the ‘nation’ and seek to score points against the government by proving that they are ‘more Greek/Macedonian’ than the other lot while not proposing any solutions other than more stalemate. 

So what was the result?

94.8% Yes.

So that’s sorted then?

Er, not quite. The referendum rules say that unless there is a 50% turnout then the result has no status. The turnout was 36.9%. 

Why was the turnout so low?

First of all there aren’t as many Macedonians as the electoral role suggests - at least not actually in Macedonia. According to the register there are 1.8 million - so over 900,000 are needed for a 50% turnout. But the number actually in the country who could actually vote is much lower than that - maybe about 1.5 million, though nobody can say for sure - that means the actual turnout required to make 50% on paper is more like 60%-65%. This wouldn’t be a problem if everybody who was against the deal had actually turned out and voted ‘no’ but some opposition politicians called for a boycott and others refused to take a position - including the leader of the opposition. 

Those against the deal couldn’t win, but they could bring the turnout down thus sabotaging the referendum.

Back to square one then?

Not exactly. First of all the referendum was advisory anyway - the real decision is down to Parliament (the Sobraine). That requires a two thirds majority to change the constitution. 

Will the government go for it?

I expect so, and PM Zoran Zaev has said as much. The result was so overwhelmingly pro the deal that can argue a mandate for changing the constitution. Resolving the name dispute and moving toward EU membership is the government’s flagship policy, so they may as well get on with it.

How so?

If you assume the voters needed to get to a 50% turnout had all turned out and voted ‘no’, the ‘yes’ vote would still be over 67%, so the Government is highly likely to press ahead with the vote to change the constitution and if it doesn’t get the necessary two-thirds majority then it will probably call a general election.

And will it get the two-thirds majority?

Hard to say. The Government is made up of the Social Democrats and a number of parties representing ethnic minorities, most significantly the Albanians. They are around nine votes short of what’s needed, so some opposition MPs will need to back them. Had they achieved the 50% then enough of the opposition would have voted with the Government.

Could they be persuaded?

A hard core definitely not. There is a lot of ‘you have betrayed the blood of my Grandfather’s sisters first cousin’ stuff around. However there may be enough opposition members open to persuasion. Some say that there are a number of opposition MPs who are under investigation for corruption who could find their charges/investigations dropped.

A bit dirty then?

About as dirty as a mud wrestling in a vat of treacle.

So who are the opposition and what do they want?

VMRO-DPMNE are the main opposition party - which is a bit of a vowel-free mouthful. They want to be back in power. They are a right-wing party who came out of the independence movement when Yugoslavia disintegrated. They see themselves as the Macedonian nationalist party but some see themselves as nearer to the European Christian Democrat parties, and their allies in the EU are the European People’s Party, so they are a fairly broad church. Their leadership is trying to keep their party together and have been looking for a fence to sit on during the referendum, meanwhile a hard core allied to the former Prime Minister, Nikola Gruevski, who is up before the beak facing a two year sentence on corruption charges, are closer to Hungary’s Viktor Orban than to Jean Claude Junker. I’m not saying they are totally corrupt but I suggest taking a look at the Presidential Palace that Gruevski built! Some say the VMRO current leader, Hristijan Mickoski, would have been happy if the 50% turnout had been reached. He said he would back ‘the will of the people’ and that would have got VMRO-DPMNE off the hook. Now he’s probably going to lean the other way but won’t offer any other solution to the problem as there doesn’t seem to be one.

Anything else we should know?

There are a few smaller ultra-right parties including one that is openly pro-Russian and anti-EU. They were pro-boycott.

What does it have to do with the Russians?

Very little, but they don’t want Macedonia in NATO and they don’t want NATO/EU influence extending further into the region. They see the Macedonians as ‘Slavs’ and themeselves as ‘Slavic’, along with the Bulgarians, the Serbs, Montenegro, etc. In the greater scheme of things, however, Macedonia doesn’t matter very much. It has about the population of Hampshire, is somewhat poor and doesn’t add much to NATO - the Russians are messing around mainly because they can. 

Where does it leave Greece?

Twiddling their thumbs really. The Syriza government led by Alexis Tsipras has at least tried to settle things. Right of centre New Democracy say they will oppose any settlement as will the various far-right/openly fascist parties like Golden Dawn but they have no other answers to propose either. It is fair to say most Greeks don’t much care, but those in the north of Greece care quite a lot - so there are votes to be won. The ball is, however, firmly in the Macedonian court.

When will it end?

Who knows? If they government gets its two-thirds majority and Greece then approves the deal too, The Republic of Northern Macedonia will be invited to join NATO and accession talks with the EU will start, though it will be a long time before they come to fruition. If not then expect new elections - the government seems fairly popular right now and it might just get its supermajority. Otherwise there is no other proposition to end the impasse - as someone said to me on my last visit, “We don’t fight the old battles of World War 2 here, we’re too busy fighting World Ward 1”. 

Posted by John Howarth
Europe’s Ryder Cup – more than the sum of the parts

Europe’s Ryder Cup – more than the sum of the parts

Being an MEP does nothing for my golf game. Golf takes time and practice and I just don’t have the time for either. Neither do I have time to watch much sport on TV, but the Ryder Cup makes riveting viewing because it not golf as we know it.

Golf is the ultimate individual sport. It is also an addiction. There are few  games in which you have no interaction at all with your opponents. You can do nothing to diminish their performance. Meanwhile you play your own game - against yourself and the course but there isn’t much you can do if your opponent is playing the way Tony Finau played today.

Also, golf is one of the few games where the ball isn’t moving while you hit it - so the same ball struck in the same place with the same club with the same force will go in the same direction for the same distance. This means at a very early stage of learning golf you hit one pretty much like that Tiger bloke on the telly. It is a beautiful if short lived high - like crack cocaine (I’m told). That’s what gets you hooked on golf. 

The Ryder Cup an oddity in professional golf because this ultimate team event is composed of largely invidual actions, there is only a very small about of actual team play (the foursomes in which two players take alternate shots using the same ball - accounting for just over 28% of the points in the match) yet the team ethos is nonetheless incredibly infectious.

The Ryder Cup seems to have got bigger and better each time and some of the players seem to transcend their individual form as they thrive under the pressure of representing their team - Sergio Garcia and Ian Poulter (pictured above winning his match against world number 1, Dustin Johnson) seem to turn in exceptional performances. Mind you, these are people who play week after week for a great deal of money. In the Ryder Cup they don’t get paid - so I guess it depends what kind of pressure bothers you.

Of course it wasn’t ever thus. The first Ryder Cup was held in 1927 and was between Great Britain and the United States, and expanded out to add Irish players in the 1950s. It was never much of a contest. I vaguely remember there was a close call in the late 60s but GB and Ireland couldn’t compete and there is nothing more boring than the same team always winning - especially when it’s the USA.

So in 1979, after the European Professional Golf Tour had become a serious business, the Ryder Cup was remodelled has been since contested by a team from Europe and team from the United States. Suddenly we had a proper contest, entertainment and everybody involved got to make more money through crowds, sponsorship, TV rights, the whole bit. Even the Americans seemed pleased. 

So the little nation that invented the infernal game (I’m referring to Scotland of course) found itself in a Union with some larger countries and was able to compete with the uppity colonials across the Atlantic. Nobody seriously thinks the Ryder Cup would be better if we went back to being a group of relatively small islands trying to compete against as much bigger nation. Competing under the European Flag and a Swedish, Spanish or Scottish captain is no problem because Justin Rose is no less English and winning is rather fun. 

This seems to have some relevance to where we find ourselves as a nation today, but I don’t want to overdo the metaphor. 

So congratulations to the European Team on a comprehensive 17.5-10.5 victory in which the USA failed to win any of the five sessions. A pity it had to end with Phil Michelson, probably the greatest left-hander in the history of the game, finding the water with his tee shot on 16th - but I dare say he’ll get over it when he next checks his bank account (1). 

A footnote on Golf

I started playing golf when I was working in a company where the rest of the senior management went off to the golf course on a Friday afternoon, I presumed, to talk business. I felt I was missing out and decisions were being taken without my input - so I learnt to play. I found out that they almost never talked business and just used it as an excuse to get away from work early.

I got the golf bug but hated the way golf clubs worked - they were dominated by self-interested, old, dull white guys wearing terrible trousers and tasteless shirts that should have carried at least a suspended sentence. So I avoided joining one for a long time. Luckily along came Tiger Woods, who among his many achievements changed golf clothing for the better through his Nike sponsorship deals. The difference Tiger Woods made is hard to underestimate - it’s great to see him back playing close to his best and winning again. 

I eventually found a club where women were equal to men and where young players male and female were encouraged - even if the club took it all a little too seriously. But there are still far too many golf clubs where the old rules apply. 

 

(1) Being left-handed is a big disadvantage in golf - or at least that’s what left-handers tell me - and the statistics would seem to support that view.

Posted by John Howarth
Farming worries about Brexit (and the weather)

Farming worries about Brexit (and the weather)

More politicians should visit farms - or at least listen to ‘The Archers’. The terminally irritating BCC Radio agri-soap was devised as a fusion of entertainment and education. Those were the days, when the BBC pursued its mission to educate and inform. The notion was that a largely urban population needed a better understanding of the needs of farming and farmers needed to understand national policy priorities in an age of shortages. ‘The Archers, for all its manifest awfulness, still has an agricultural story editor and reflects the issues facing the sector - to some extent.

One thing that’s sure; farmers may have a reputation for complaining and worrying but right now they have plenty to worry about. In 2018 Brexit casts long dark shadow over an industry that has faced a long term crisis of profitability, labour and social mobility and weakness in the face of more powerful market actors. One of the central paradoxes of Brexit applies to farming - those who voted for the UK to leave are likely to be hardest hit should Brexit eventually happen and the harder the Brexit the harder the hit. Right now uncertainty dominates, as I found out visiting two farms in the east of Berkshire.

Farming income support - for how much longer?

The UK has moaned about the Common Agricultural Policy and all its works since joining the EEC in the early 1970s. The UK and Labour in particular, argued that the policy should consume a lower share of EU resource. This happened: at one time the CAP accounted for nearly 80% of the budget now it is around 40%. The UK argued that the nature of subsidies should change to more the CAP away from stockpiling overproduction. This also happened. In fact the UK, though not the biggest beneficiary from the CAP, does nonetheless receive more from the CAP budget than it contributes. If there is a transition period UK farmers will continue to draw from the CAP until the end of 2020. After that the Conservative Government has said that it will maintain subsidies to farmers - but it hasn’t said for how long. In reality it will be difficult for the UK to subside at a greater rate than the EU without damaging the export prospects of the sector through charges of unfair competition under whatever trade agreements may be struck. So once again the UK will find itself tied by the decisions of the EU in which, despite its record of winning reform, will have no say. For now, however, farmers simply have to wait.

Agricultural depends on Labour from mainland Europe

The immediate problem for many farmers, particularly those in horticulture, is where and how they will source the labour on which they depend. The simple fact is that seasonal and part-seasonal labour is sourced from Eastern Europe. While there are undoubtedly bad employers in the sector both the NFU and individual farmers I have met strongly dispute this is typical. The notion that migrant labour will be replace by local labour is yet another unicorn ridden by the Brexiteers. Whether it is fruit picking in Kent, herb harvesting in Berkshire or lettuce farming in East Yorkshire, any notion of local labour long since disappeared. There is simply easier money to be made. The value of sterling has already hit labour supply and despite having all the ability to plan in this area there remains a deafening silence from the Home Office more than two years after the vote to leave.

Agriculture has a cross-border supply chain

Next to labour, there seems a failure to understand the dynamics of modern agriculture and how it has developed within the single market. Just as the single market enabled UK manufacturing to take advantage of specialist suppliers producing and supplying components ‘just in time’, it also enabled agri-business to develop cross border supply chains. UK agriculture is linked to suppliers in the Netherlands, France, Belgium and Germany and exports to end-use and processing markets across Europe. UK agri-business has interests in Spain and Portugal that in turn supply the UK food chains. The notion of ‘reverting’ to the UK ‘growing its own food’ is another fiction peddled by Brexiteers. The UK has never been self-sufficient in food production since the industrial revolution and has agricultural trade with the European mainland pre-dates the Roman Empire. Here too we cannot just turn back the clock. EU regulations, which protect the consumer, provide a level playing field for food production and deliver animal welfare standards, are a reality and UK agriculture has no choice but to go along with them or sacrifice its more valuable markets.

The food supply chain is fragile

Fragility of the supply chain is amplified by the fact that we are dealing with in part with perishable items and fresh food destined for the supermarket shelves in the UK. The lack of understanding at Westminster was perfectly illustrated by ministerial calls for supermarket chains to ‘take up the slack’ in ensuring food supplied continue uninterrupted in the event of the UK crashing out of the Customs Union and EU Single Market thus causing inevitable delay in both directions at the ports, in particular Dover. In 1974 the UK may have had other markets but also the EEC regulatory framework was much less integrated. Now outside that framework, in which the UK will have no say, farmers face potential problems should the UK diverge from the rules in which the industry operates.

Precision farming depends upon satellite communications

At one of the farms I visited ‘precision farming’ techniques with the aid of GPS technology was enabling efficiency gains during their harvests leading to improved productivity and lower cost of capital employment. It was also responsible for a reduction in the carbon footprint of the farms and, when rolled out on a wider scale, significant agricultural contribution toward climate CO2 reduction targets. All good news and all dependent upon the EU developed Galileo satellite navigation programme - the UK’s continued participation in which has been needlessly called into question by the sclerotic progress of Brexit negotiations.

Supermarkets, force overproduction and waste

Aside from the immediate issues with Brexit, farmers face continual additional costs because of the way in which the supermarkets use their powerful market position. A farmer is as good as their last contract. Fail to supply the supermarket and that contract may well not be renewed, so horticultural suppliers may overproduce by as much as 50% to be sure to deliver. While there are some alternative markets for the rest much is ploughed back or simply thrown away. I find that there is something deeply wrong with a situation that allows oligopoly customers to misuse their power in this way without any significant form of counterbalance in the market.

Agriculture has an image problem

In the medium term the entire industry has problems of long term profitability and image that mean it is becoming harder and harder to attract young people into agricultural careers. The image of hard work, long hours, unreliable incomes and the potential for nature-inflicted disaster ensures that agriculture faces an ongoing crisis that, Brexit or no Brexit, UK policy makers need to take seriously.

Don’t mention the weather

So in summary, while Brexit dominates immediate thinking, farming faces long term problems that are finding few answers from politicians and policy makers. It’s not new but it is ever more critical that it is taken seriously by Labour as well as the other parties all of whom have had the luxury of relying on EU policy makers to deliver. They largely have. Whatever else, a continent that frequently struggled to feed itself has benefitted from abundance for half a century. UK Farmers are finding at present that they have much more to complain about than the weather.  For the good of the country, more politicians are going to need to find out what's bothering the farmers.

Posted by John Howarth
UK Universities return to Brexit uncertainty

UK Universities return to Brexit uncertainty

With most students returning to or starting university this week, John has been working on two ‘legislative opinions’* in the European Parliament that will, Brexit or no Brexit, affect the future of students in the UK and the universities as institutions. 

The EU is developing its Horizon Europe (Framework 9) programme through which it will make its research investment from 2021 to 2027. The EU’s programmes include institutions from a number of countries outside the EU. John is working hard to make sure that the door is not closed on UK Universities. 

He says, “It is vital that the seventeen universities within the South East, are not restricted in their ability to continue to be world class research centres as well as to attract both EU Students and Staff. The Horizon 2020 (Framework 8) programme has ensured South East England has remained at the forefront of research and innovation. The success of this thriving sector depends on international collaboration. I would prefer the UK didn’t leave at all, but while I will always argue that it is also my job is to help get the best deal possible”.

Britain receives a considerable amount of funding through international research programmes, particularly those originating in the EU. In fact the UK gets out more proportionately than it currently put in. Over the period 2007-2013, Britain was the second largest recipient of research funding through the EU’s Framework Programme 7, receiving €6.9 billion out of a total €55.4 billion. Furthermore, UK higher education institutions received £725 million in research funding from EU government bodies in 2014/15, which accounts for 12 per cent of their total income from research grants.

Since 2014, the South East of England has benefitted from nearly €420 million of research funding to support 709 research projects under Horizon 2020.

John and his colleagues have consistently made the argument that the UK remaining in the programmes and, eventually, the UK Government has agreed, in principle, that it wants to ‘pay and play’. That means the UK will pay MORE than it pays at present to take part in these programmes - but the sad reality is this is the only way to keep our institutions at the forefront - there is no alternative framework available. The upside is that the budget for the programme will grow substantially. Now John is trying to make sure that the EU legislation governing Horizon Europe doesn’t contain traps that seek to limit access or prevent UK universities benefitting from the outcome of their research.   

The second programme on which John is working is Erasmus+ which enables students to study at universities in the rest of the EU.

The UK’s participation in Erasmus+ continues to grow year-on-year, with 15,645 students from UK universities spending a period abroad in 2015–16, up from 14,801 students in 2014–15. 

So far John has been able to get assurances from the UK Univerisities Minister, Sam Gymah MP, that the UK intends to seek participation in Erasmus+ and from the European Commission that the door will remain open to the UK.  

John says “I hope the UK government will join me in helping shape the next phase of Erasmus+ working toward greater flexibility for short-term mobility, and of providing targeted support for disadvantaged students who would like to participate in Erasmus+ in the future. We already know that funding for Erasmus will increase significantly after 2020. It would be a tragedy if UK students were forced to miss out under a ‘no deal’ or hard Brexit.

“More broadly however, the UK government and the EU must ensure future academic and student mobility is not impeded by unnecessary bureaucracy regardless of the immigration status of EU/EEA nationals if and when UK leaves the EU”.

Universities in the South East of England have benefitted hugely from both the Horizon 2020 and Erasmus programmes. Allowing students to be at the forefront of new, exciting research combined will be part of any Brexit deal that swerves the interests of both the UK and the EU. The next six months will be make of break for the university sector - one of Britain’s biggest export earners.

 

* a ‘legislative opinion’ is a specialist view of a particular committee seeking to amend/influence EU legislation being determined by another committee in the Parliament. 

Posted by John Howarth
Britain STILL neeeds the European Arrest Warrant

Britain STILL neeeds the European Arrest Warrant

Wednesday’s (5/09/2018) emergency statement by Mrs May to the House of Commons highlighted the danger of Russian meddling in British affairs, but crucially, Britain’s reliance on EU policing networks.  

In her statement, the PM stated that two Russian agents from the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate, the GRU, are alleged to have used the Novichok nerve agent on Sergei and Yulia Skripal, and for the botched disposal of the agent found in a public bin, which is connected to the poisoning of Charlie Rowley, and the death of Dawn Sturgess. Altogether the two men, alleged to be working under aliases, are wanted for 4 offences. 

The UK’s only realistic chance of bringing these men to justice is if they were to return to an EU member state. To apprehend these two men, Mrs May confirmed that the UK authorities have obtained an European Arrest Warrant, which will be enacted if they again set foot on EU soil.  

The Russians are not going to extradite Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov. Article 61 of Russia’s constitution expressly forbids the extradition of its citizens to foreign countries for trial. Also Russia will not co-operate with a country with which there has been a long history of legal estrangement.  

Since 2003, when the UK refused to action Moscow’s extradition request for Boris Berezovsky on the grounds that he was unlikely to get a fair trial due to his political views, the UK and Russia have refused to co-operate with each other’s requests for extradition. In the Alexander Litvinenko case, instead of extraditing the suspected poisoner of Litvinenko, Andrei Lugovoi, Putin awarded a medal to Lugovoi for “services to the motherland”. 

In the context of these legal and political obstacles, the importance of the European Arrest Warrant cannot be underscored enough. 

The European Arrest Warrant allows for quick extradition of criminals from one EU country to another, through the removal of red tape seen in typical extradition procedures. Sounds a good thing, right? Even arch-Brexiteer David Davis thinks so, stating it is a ‘crucial part of security co-operation’ with the EU. 

But this mechanism only works through the application of the European Charter of Fundamental Rights, the concept of EU citizenship, free movement, and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. Mrs May’s proposed Brexit, with all the ramifications of the EU Withdrawal Bill, will take the UK out of the European Charter of Fundamental Rights. Leaving the EU will also usher the end of the free movement of people, which is needed for the European Arrest Warrant to work. 

The effectiveness of the European Arrest Warrant will be curtailed even during the Brexit transition period. Article 168 of the draft withdrawal agreement states that during the transition period, EU countries may not surrender their national citizens to the UK in accordance with the surrender provisions contained in the European Arrest Warrant.
And with some countries in the EU, like Germany, having similar provisions as Russia in their constitution - specifying that they will not surrender their own citizens to non-EU countries - the UK could encounter some problems. 

Put simply, if we’re out of the EU under the terms currently on offer, people like Petrov and Boshirov will never be brought to trial and could get off scot-free. Offenders in the UK will be able to run to the continent and avoid procescution. A backward step to the Costa-del-Crime.

Is this really what we voted for? 

Posted by John Howarth
No deal Brexit is the worse deal of all – official

No deal Brexit is the worse deal of all – official

For the two years and more the proponents of Brexit have been decrying the factual statements of the consequences of the UK leaving the EU. With the publication of the first tranche of ‘technical papers’ papers setting out the implications of a ‘no deal’ Brexit these cavalier dismissals of the facts and the mistaken promises should be seen for what they are.

Let’s recap on just how wrong they have been:

Doing a deal was going to be easy: said Fox and Davis and Johnson.

Clearly not so, but it has proved all the more difficult because of the civil war within the Conservative Government.

They said if the UK left the EU bureaucracy and red tape could be slashed.

But the technical papers spell out the massive overhead of bureaucracy that a ‘no deal’ would impose on any business involved in import and export with the EU27.

The said that leaving the EU would bring down prices.

But the technical papers make clear that the cost of bureaucracy, tariffs, credit card charges and customs paperwork alone will increase the cost of goods and force businesses to increase prices of products including food.

They said claims that medicines could be in short supply were scaremongering.

Yet the technical papers talk about stockpiling medicines to counter the effects of a ‘no deal’ Brexit because international supply chains are a fact of life in 2018.

They said the NHS would benefit

But the NHS is already being hurt and in the event of no deal, as well as the uncertainty over secure supplies of medicines, faces difficulties with the supply of radiotherapy materials to treat cancers and of highly qualified staff from the EU.

We were again told we were scaremongering when we alerted the public to the danger to food supplies posed by a hard Brexit.

But now the technical papers, the supermarket chains and the farmers have all made it clear that customs delays and the absence of agreement on common regulations are certain to disrupt the supply of foods to the UK and hammer the UK’s agricultural exports too. The next time you hear a Brexiteer dismiss this stuff ask yourself (and them if they allow it) what possible reason would the farmers, the supermarkets and the Port of Dover have to lie about this stuff.

They said they would do their own trade deals.

But is fact nobody is interested in even talking about a trade deal until the UK has agreed its relationship with the EU single market AND if ‘no deal’ exists then the UK’s current trading arrangements with 60 plus countries will no longer be valid.

They said the implications of the border in Ireland could be easily sorted out.

But in reality they haven’t got a clue. The technical papers now suggest that those seeking to do business with the Republic of Ireland should get advice from the Irish Government!

They said ‘they need us more than we need them’.

But both the technical papers and the economic analysis of, well, everybody demonstrates that this is simply not the case and never was. Given the choice of worrying about trade with one country and trade with another 26, not surprisingly, the remaining member states chose the 26. Detailed analysis also demonstrates that only a few EU states are significantly affected by Brexit – our most immediate neighbours: Ireland (hardest hit), The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany (mainly the western regions) and France (mainly the north). In other words gravity still applies to trade.  

They said it would save money.

But the Government has told us they have 7,000 Civil Servants working on Brexit and the money set aside for another 9,000 (in total that’s at least half a billion a year, by our reckoning) AND that’s before the Government subsidises all the things that are currently paid for through the European Union and pays extra to do so in many areas.

They said no deal is better than a bad deal.

But the technical papers show that no deal is the worst deal possible.

So what does all this mean?

It shows that just about everything that has been peddled over the past two years by the Brexiteers has proved to be wrong. It shows that far from being ‘project fear’, the facts show that Britain will suffer badly in the event of a ‘no deal Brexit’. Yet, still, the likes of Mr Rees-Mogg, who seems to think a cut glass accent is a substitute for knowledge, continue to press for an outcome that will patently damage the UK for decades and hit the poorest hardest.

The Brexiteers now talk about the UK’s survival through a ‘no deal’ Brexit.

I’ve no doubt the UK can survive no deal - but we weren’t promised mere survival, we were promised the sunny uplands.

It’s entirely fair and democratic that the public should take a view on this new evidence.

Note

As you can see from the links with this article, the evidence is not exactly hard to find, Sources include the not exatly EU-loving Daily Mail, the Telegraph, the Financial Times as well as the BBC, Politico, The Guardian and The Independent as well as others. These sources in turn quote other academic reports and official sites.

Posted by John Howarth
Christine Borgars – Obituary

Christine Borgars – Obituary

There are few people who have better carried the ethos of public service through their lives than the late Christine Borgars who has died today, 12 August, aged 75.

Christine was Councillor for Reading Borough Council’s Park Ward from 1994 to 2006, for the last five years of which we served the ward together. There was no more diligent a local councillor than Christine. During my time as Lead Councillor for Transport, Christine Chaired the Traffic Management Committee and proved both entirely reliable and totally loyal. Christine cared deeply about good local government and doing the job properly.

Christine made a contribution to Reading, but what said more about her was her voluntary work after she stood down from the Council. Week in, week out Christine gave her time to the community and for charitable causes. She was still doing so when she was very ill indeed. This included, in particular, work with young people at Reading’s Pakistan Community Centre, where she ran computer classes week in, week out, assisted as Secretary of the organisation and provided invaluable advice. Invaluable because Christine would tell people what they needed to hear, not necessarily what they wanted to hear - that’s what a good friend does.

But first and foremost, Christine Borgars was an essential part of Reading Labour’s political and electoral organisation for nearly a quarter of a century. Always in the background, Christine made a great contribution to the election of three Labour MPs and to the unmatched electoral success Labour enjoyed locally. She processed and organised the data that helped Labour get its message to the voters and made a significant contribution to Labour’s use of technology well beyond Reading - one of the unsung heroes on which public life depends.

Christine made her career and much of her political and community contribution from technology. She was a ‘computer nerd’ long before it was fashionable. Christine was a trade unionist and a socialist who did more than talk the talk - she lived the life - putting the welfare of others before her own. She was selfless, tireless, loyal to a fault, harmlessly eccentric and didn’t seem to need sleep. Reading Labour came to love her dearly. She has left us far too soon. She will be much missed. 

R.I.P. Christine.

Posted by John Howarth
My Local Brexit – Cllr Lisa Mitchell

My Local Brexit – Cllr Lisa Mitchell

John says: “This summer I’m featuring a series of guest blogs from Labour councillors around the region who have been kind enough to write short pieces on how they see Brexit affecting the area they represent.”

In May Lisa Mitchell gained Portswood Ward in Southampton Test for Labour, she is pictured above, second to the right of John, during the campaign.

Lisa writes:

I am very lucky to represent a diverse and vibrant ward in Southampton where a lot of my residents are going to be affected by Brexit. Many of them either work or study at Southampton University which is a big employer both in Portswood and the city in general. 

Leaving the EU is going to have a huge impact on research funding which will no doubt affect jobs. Student numbers from the EU could also fall as there are no guarantees that fee structures for these students will stay the same as they are now.  

For those of my constituents who come from EU countries they are now living with increasing uncertainty about their rights to live and work in a post Brexit U.K. 

My ward also has a great high street full of pubs, restaurants, cafes and small independent shops such as the October Books which is a Portswood institution. I worry that Portswood High Street may not fare very well if prices start to rise and people’s wages are squeezed in the event of a hard Brexit." 

Cllr Lisa Mitchell
Portswood Ward, Southampton City Council

Posted by John Howarth
My Local Brexit – Cllr Mike Rowley

My Local Brexit – Cllr Mike Rowley

John says: “This summer I’m featuring a series of guest blogs from Labour councillors around the region who have been kind enough to write short pieces on how they see Brexit affecting the area they represent.”

Mike Rowley (pictured above – third from the right – green t-shirt – at the launch of Labour’s local manifesto) is Labour’s Portfolio Holder for Housing on Oxford City Council has been an enthusiastic campaigner for Labour candidates around the Thames Valley. He represents Sandhills and North-East Headington

Mike writes:

Brexit is a particular concern for Oxford as our City has one of the largest European communities in Britain (more than one in eight of our citizens).  EU nationals work in our car industry, our innovative high-tech sector, our Universities, and above all our NHS hospitals which are centres of excellence for the whole South of England.

Across Britain, one in nine NHS employees is an EU national; in Oxford that figure is two out of nine.  Our NHS hospitals, already struggling to attract vital staff because of the high cost of living here, face potential disaster if those workers are not allowed to stay one and all.

As a Council, the biggest impact so far – and one that will only increase given the uncertainty of the Government’s chaotic negotiations – is a chronic shortage of trained construction workers.  This is a national problem which has hit Oxford particulrly badly.  The Government’s much-vaunted house-building plans simply cannot be achieved in time for the people who desperatel;y need affordable homes without EU nationals.

In the longer term, we need a rational and balanced policy to ensure that Britain trains enough skilled workers to meet its needs – with a living wage for young workers, proper bursaries for student nurses, affordable housing for everyone including people who move for work, and many other measures joined into a well-thought-out plan for the future of our society and economy.

Unfortunately, I’ve seen nothing from this Government that would lead me to believe they’re capable of anything like that.  Instead, they present themselves more and more as a collection of brainless egos swirling down a hole of their own making, when any other Government would be going all-out to get us the best deal for our future relationship with the EU.

Councillor Mike Rowley
Barton, Sandhills and North-East Headington – Oxford City Council

Posted by John Howarth
My Local Brexit – Cllr Lee Cowen

My Local Brexit – Cllr Lee Cowen

John says: “This summer I’m featuring a series of guest blogs from Labour councillors around the region who have been kind enough to write short pieces on how they see Brexit affecting the area they represent.”

Lee Cowen won Mash Barn Ward in Adur District for Labour in a by-election last October and successfully defended the seat in May (Lee is pictured above campaigning with John in April) . Adur includes Shoreham, Southwick and Lancing on the Sussex coast west of Brighton and Hove. Lee works in the computer/online games industry. The creative industries have been a great manufacturing success for the UK in highly competitive digital markets. 

Lee writes:

Valued at a record £5.11bn after 12.4% growth in 2017, the UK games and interactive entertainment market is the fifth largest in the world, with of 32.4m Britons enjoying games, played on mobiles, online, consoles and PCs. Supported by Government policies, UK games publishers and developers like Creative Assembly are responsible for £2bn of exports annually.

Brexit will present a challenge to the growth of the UK economy, including the games and interactive entertainment industry.

With the industry being a highly global (and mobile) market, maintaining access to a diverse pool of specialised talent will be crucial to sustaining the UK’s high performance. Companies rely on non-UK EU nationals to fill key creative and technical posts. 

According to Creative Assembly: 

“As a global and diverse industry, games businesses and developers need a range of nationalities and viewpoints to encourage innovation and create products that are globally marketable and world-class. 

“Since the referendum, we have received a number of communications from EEA nationals who have changed their minds about working in the UK due to concerns about long term job security. Also, many of our EU staff have expressed concern for their job security and future careers. We want to be able to provide jobs to employees that deliver a good quality of life, a foundation to build a family and allow them to make meaningful cultural and creative contributions through their work, no matter their country of origin. 

“The talent that this has attracted has given us 34 different nationalities and 19% of our workforce is made up of EEA nationals who are in specialized skill areas such as Engine Optimization, Artificial Intelligence Programming and Design, Graphics Programming, Technical Art, Game Monetization and Live Operation to name but a few.”

Cllr Lee Cowen
Adur District Council

Posted by John Howarth